20VC Newsletter - 16th March 2025
Here are the transcripts and top takeaways from 20VC episodes released this last week.
Monday’s episode with Jake Saper GP @ Emergence Capital:
Download the full transcript:
My 7 key takeaways:
F**king Insane Stats on Graduation of Emergence Portfolio
We did an analysis on our deals in terms of graduation metrics:
9/10 early-stage investments raised successful follow-on rounds.
1/5 raised rounds north of a billion dollars.
1/10 have gone public.
The Framework We Use for Every Investment
We identify 3-5 things that we have to believe for this deal to return the fund.
We refine them as we do diligence calls & gather more data.
This results in a chart that we use to evaluate the deal.
Why Partnerships Have to Do Diligence and Why “Priority Deal” Is a Holy Word
Every investment we make we have all the partners do diligence.
When we come to make a decision, everyone has made a contribution.
Our process seeks truth together, as a team.
Founder or Market: What Is More Important
Market pull comes first when you’re evaluating a potential investment.
The founder comes second.
It is their job to figure out how to build something defensible in that world of market pull.
Why Market Pull Is the Most Important Thing
You want people who are desperate for your product.
They should have tried solving it themselves either by hacking something together or by buying an inferior product.
Otherwise your product is only a nice-to-have.
Why Most Venture Firms Have Broken Partnerships
Most venture firms either hire seasoned CEOs or junior associates with 2 years to prove themselves.
The junior people’s investments either do not have enough time to mature or they leave because they’ll never be equal partners.
This is bad for the founders because they will become orphaned deals.
3 Reasons Why AI Will Not Replace Vertical SAAS
Three reasons:
Expertise – You are not just buying the code; you are buying an opinionated perspective on how to solve the problem
Maintenance – They are constantly keeping the software up to date
Accountability – They guarantee reliability & support
Behind the scenes:
Wednesday’s episode with Niklas Östberg, Co-Founder & CEO @ Delivery Hero:
Download the full transcript:
My 5 key takeaways:
How Much of Winning Is Competition vs Execution?
In the past I saw it as 80% competition & 20% execution.
Now I learned it is 80% execution & 20% competition.
Was the Massive Capital Surge Into Delivery a Good or a Bad Bubble
It was a bad bubble and we spent unnecessary money.
We saw a small bump in the cohorts, but it went back to the trend line.
It did not move the industry forward that much.
What I Learned Losing $200M in Gorillas and Quick Commerce
They kept outpacing expectations, I thought my models were wrong & invested.
They were massively boosted by vouchers & discounts – What came up eventually came down.
The cohort models work – you have to look at the core business & stick to your core principles.
What We Learned From Messing up the Thailand Business
We scaled from a couple thousand orders a day to 400,000, but now it is doing less than 25% of that.
We did not care enough about the customer experience & offered too many discounts.
You have to prioritize sustainability.
Biggest Lessons From 20 Years of Cohort Data
Cohorts are incredibly strong unless:
You screw up
They are acquired through discounting.
If we do things right & take care of them they are extremely predictable.
Friday’s episode with Mathias Biilmann, CEO @ Netlify:
Download the full transcript:
My 4 key takeaways:
The Rise and Dominance of AI Services
The next 100 million software developers will emerge using agentic tools that simplify coding.
Software development will still be a profession, requiring skills to guide AI agents in building effectively.
These tools will make software creation much cheaper than today.
Closed Wall Products Are S**t
Google & Meta struggle to productize AI.
Features like Genesis and Llama feel underwhelming and poorly integrated.
Users prefer AI tools outside walled gardens.
Why I am Bullish on Anthropic
They stand out in solving coding tasks.
Better AI-driven programming expands what LLMs can do, multiplying their impact.
Founders Should Raise at the Highest Price While They Can
Valuations were too high, but founders should capitalize on favorable markets to secure funding before tough times hit.
They should always raise at the best price possible to ensure their company can weather downturns.
Let us know what your big takeaways from this week’s shows were in the comments below!
Thank you for reading, and don’t miss the great guests we have next week:
Elias Torres, Founder & CEO @ Agency AI
Antoine Martin, Co-Founder & CEO @ Amo
Julia Hoggett, CEO @ London Stock Exchange
Thank you for reading 20VC.
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