20VC Newsletter - 6th July 2025
Here are the transcripts and top takeaways from 20VC episodes released this last week.
Monday’s episode with Monday episode: Philipp Freise, Head of European PE @ KKR:
Download the full transcript:
My 6 key takeaways:
The 4 Disruptions That Are Reshaping the World
Four things:
Technology: AI is reshaping productivity.
Geopolitics: Countries are breaking old alliances and competing more fiercely.
Monetary sphere: The U.S. dollar’s power is weakening under huge debts.
Demographic crisis: Feeling of unparalleled inequality between certain segments of the population.
We Need Fund Returners in Private Equity!
A common misconception of PE is that it is a boring industry & we only aim for 2x over 5 years.
If we do that, we are not doing our job.
You need to have some real winners.
Europe Needs to Invest More Than Ever
We need to invest $750-800BN alone just to catch up on AI innovation.
We also need more investment to compete in other industries.
Defence, high tech, etc…
We Lost $500M in Turkey and Now Do Not Do Emerging Markets
We backed a logistics company called U.N. Ro-Ro.
We thought it was a protected player, but the rule of law was a bit more flexible there.
Now we stay close to what we can control.
KKR We Have Overregulated AI and Need to Stop
We need to unleash the full potential of this technology.
We are still in the experimental phase, but we have absolutely overregulated the space.
Will USD Be the Reserve Currency of the World in 10 Years Time?
The percentage could reduce but it is impossible to replace reserve currencies that quickly.
We also need to think about what its replacement will be.
Right now the only credible alternative is the Euro.
Behind the Scenes:
Thursday’s episode with Rory O'Driscoll, GP @ Scale & Jason Lemkin, Founder @ SaaStr:
Download the full transcript:
My 5 key takeaways:
If You Have Not Accelerated Because of AI You Have Failed
“Slow” incumbents like Oracle are signing $30BN deals with OpenAI.
Founders had 30 months since ChatGPT launched to do something.
If you haven’t grown because of AI yet, it’s not going to happen.
We Know Our Winners Within a Two Year Period
If they’re at or within 25% of the underwrite plan 2 years in, it hugely increases their chances of success.
The probability of a 5x goes from 30% to 70%.
Why the $2.5BN Melio Outcome Was Discouraging
They had $153M ARR, growing 127% YoY.
They only sold for a 16x revenue multiple.
It is not a deceleration story: You wouldn’t advise your portfolio companies to sell for $2.5BN with those numbers.
Is the Money Being Invested in AI Today an Economically Rational Decision
We are investing $300-400BN a year in CapEx alone.
This does not include salaries.
We do not know if it will be an economically rational decision 2-3 years from now.
WTF Happens to All These $100M ARR Companies With Low Growth?
Every venture firm has a few of these companies.
They’re too small for an IPO, and their slow growth limits their financing options.
I am not expecting PE to come in and save the day.
Let us know what your big takeaways from this week’s shows were in the comments below!
Thank you for reading, and don’t miss the great guests we have next week:
Monday episode: Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing @ NYU Stern
Thursday episode: Jason Lemkin & Rory O'Driscoll
Friday episode: 20Sales
Thank you for reading 20VC.
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