20VC Newsletter - 8th February 2026
Here are the transcripts and top takeaways from 20VC episodes released this last week.
Harry Stebbings will join Charles Aspden on Thursday, February 19, to discuss the current landscape of European private markets.
Monday’s episode with Oren Zeev, Founding Partner @ Zeev Ventures:
Download the full transcript:
My 7 key takeaways:
The Best Companies Look Weird and That Way They Have a Head Start
If the company looks weird or wrong, there probably won’t be 15 other startups doing it.
You will have 2-3 years without real competition & can build a real moat.
If you happen to be right, these will be some of the greatest outcomes.
Investing Lessons From the Boom of 2021
In 2021, I probably paid 3-4x more than I should have for almost every deal.
Some of them are still going to be winners despite overpaying.
In any given market, you want to do the best deals you can, and some vintages are going to be better than others.
50% of Funds Will Go Out of Business
If you are not a platform, then it is much harder for you to raise.
At least 50% of funds today cannot raise or aren’t sure if they’re able to.
Many of them are not going to be able to raise.
My Advice to Founders on Pre-Emptive Rounds
Take the money, but continue to behave as if you didn’t.
Companies can be overfunded & lead to a loss of focus.
Spend it based on the signals from the market, not the pressure from the boardroom.
What I Want to See When Leading a Series A:
I want to see real risk reduced, not better-looking milestones.
Logos without renewal are just noise.
You want to see real product-market fit.
Why You Shouldn’t Judge a Decision by the Outcome
Like poker, you can have the odds in your favor, make the right decisions, and still lose.
Judge the process, not one result, or you’ll learn the wrong lesson.
If you make the right decisions, you will win eventually.
Thursday’s episode with Rory O’Driscoll, GP @ Scale, Jason Lemkin, Founder @ SaaStr:
Download the full transcript:
My 6 key takeaways:
There Are Only Two Types of Companies
Private companies: either hypergrowth or effectively unfundable in today’s market.
Public companies: only accelerating businesses matter, not ones that are slowing.
If you’re not clearly improving fast, it’s not worth the time.
The Shift From Being Valued on Revenue Multiples to Free Cash Flow
When investors are comparing you to steady industries, it’s a huge valuation reset.
It will take years of flat stock price and reasonable growth before you can be worth 10-15x FCF.
You don’t see a bottom until these stocks trade at free cash flow multiples net of dilution.
NVIDIA Would Have to Bail Out OpenAI
If NVIDIA can afford it, they have to bail out OpenAI if they stumble.
Other competitors like Anthropic are already diversifying to TPUs and AWS.
OpenAI is too big to fail.
The Dispersion Between Old and Low Growth and New and High Growth in Terms of Valuation Has Never Been More
We are seeing a heightened dispersion: low-growth companies are at 3x, and high-growth companies are at 50-100x.
New & exciting companies are getting insane multiples, while old & boring companies are going down.
A lot of software companies are moving to old & boring.
Why the $100BN Paid for Waymo Is Actually Cheap
Tesla’s market cap is ~$1.2TN. Assume the $100BN car business is valued at 2x revenue = $200BN.
That leaves ~$1TN for non-car assets.
Assuming a 50/50 split between Optimus & self-driving = ~$500BN each.
Waymo’s $100BN looks cheap compared to Tesla’s $500BN.
Is the Elon Premium on SpaceX Justified?
SpaceX had ~$15BN revenue in ‘24 and ~$18BN in ‘25, growing ~30%.
The market is valuing it at ~50x run-rate revenue.
It feels like 80% of the value is the Elon premium, and 20% of the value is the actual business.
Friday’s episode with Ariel Cohen, Co-Founder & CEO @ Navan:
Download the full transcript:
Let us know what your big takeaways from this week’s shows were in the comments below!
Thank you for reading, and don’t miss the great guests we have next week:
Monday episode: Anish Acharya, GP @ a16z
Thursday episode: Jason Lemkin, Rory O’Driscoll & Mike Cannon-Brookes
Friday episode: Carles Reina, GTM @ ElevenLabs
Thank you for reading 20VC.
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