20VC Newsletter - June 16th 2024
20VC Newsletter - June 16th 2024
Here are the transcripts and top takeaways from 20VC episodes released this last week!
Monday’s episode Reid Hoffman, Co-Founder of LinkedIn & Inflection AI:
Download the full transcript:
My 10 key takeaways:
The Importance of Compute on the Improvement of Models
Applying scale compute is the reason behind all the magic in AI.
Each new level of scale brings new & serious capabilities to the table.
We’ll be on a forever journey of massively increasing the amount of compute.
Foundation Models Will Make Money and the Comparison to Airbnb
It’s the classic venture thing of starting off with bad operating margins.
The first 1000 stays at Airbnb had terrible margins.
Software has great margins & the dev cost for AI will go down over time.
Where are The Investable Opportunities in AI
You don’t attack a fortress from the front door.
There’s lot of opportunities in “new territories” and “river diversions”
It won’t be in frontier models that take on google search.
Why and How Massive Companies is a Good Thing
We are heading towards more & more large tech companies.
It’s actually a feature not a bug.
They can invest in risky multi-year projects that are massively valuable for society like AI.
Why Governments are Worried About the Wrong Things in AI
They are too focused on preventing big tech domination.
We have access to the best medical advisors & personal tutors today.
Getting them to every person’s smartphones should be their top job.
What Do We Think Is Crazy Today That Will Be a No Brainer in 10 Years?
Every person will have a personal AI agent.
They will help with a wide range of tasks from research, conversations & medical advice.
People will consult them multiple times every day.
Lunch with Biden and Why He is Better than People Think
In 2 hours we had a detailed discussion about AI, Israel, and the tech industry…
It’s popular to say he’s old & not cognitively with it.
He still knows what he’s talking about.
Americans Have Forgotten How Bad Trump Was!
People are agitated about a lot of global events today.
As a result they also placed their agitation on Biden.
They haven’t fully remembered the incompetencies and corruption of Trump.
The No That Cost Billions of Dollars! SpaceX
Elon said he will be the first person to send life on Mars & I said no.
The space industry had decades of innovation not reflected in the markets.
The market structure locked everything in & Elon was able to disrupt it.
Why Zuckerberg is the Best Meta Strategist
He plays the long game against other tech leaders.
The markets overreacted on Meta’s earnings call.
His bet on AI is 100% correct.
Wednesday’s episode with Alexandr Wang, Founder & CEO of Scale AI:
Download the full transcript:
My 9 key takeaways:
We Need Frontier Data and the Importance of It to Models
We need to have an abundance of frontier data.
It’s complex reasoning chains, complex discussion, agent chains of models, data-retrieval, self-correction…
These are all components we need for an agent.
What Does the Foundational Model Landscape Look Like in 10 Years?
They will cost tens and hundreds of billions to train.
Only nations or large tech companies will have the capital to invest in them.
It will be a battle of giants.
Is China Really 2 Years Behind the US?
They were nowhere near the US when GPT-4 was released.
Now they have one of the best models in the world (Yi-Large)
They have a clear shot at racing forward.
The CCP’s Industrial Approach is Better Than Anyone Else's
They may not have the most innovative approach to industrial policy.
But once an industry is established they are better at turning the crank.
We’re seeing this pattern with solar, EVs, and now AI.
AI is More Powerful than Nukes and Russia Would Use it Against Us
AI has potential to be one of the greatest military assets.
Countries with AGI will have superiority over weapon design & military strategy.
China & Russia would use it to conquer.
Should We Have Closed Systems if AGI Is More Powerful Than Nukes?
The most cutting edge models should be closed-sourced.
Less advanced systems that produce massive economic value should still be open-sourced.
There’s a fine line between these models & we need to be thoughtful about it.
Enterprise Software Will Be Changed Forever
Enterprises are going to demand greater levels of customization.
Software production & creation costs are going down dramatically.
Enterprise software will be custom-built to solve specific problems.
Congress Gave Fairer Treatment than Media Outlets
I received more fair treatment testifying for Congress than various media outlets.
Traditional media only focus on clicks & they cannot be fully fair to companies.
Companies need to tell their stories through direct channels.
Patrick Collison on Did Stripe's Amazing Brand Help Them Attract the Best?
He said the best hires would have joined whether they were a hot company or not.
People who joined because of the brand weren’t necessarily the most valuable employees.
Developing a self-preserving talent ecosystem is so much more important.
Friday’s episode with Janie Lee, Head of Product at Loom:
Download the full transcript:
My 6 key takeaways:
What Makes Parker Conrad So Special?
He is the CEO and also the HR administrator.
His customer empathy is unmatched.
When you become a customer of your own product, you become an expert in the problem space.The Importance of Talent Density
Junior people in their career should join a company with high talent density.
It is the single biggest predictor of career acceleration.
Creating talent density becomes your job as you get senior.Is Simple Always Better in Product
I believe in progressive disclosure in product experiences.
If you know your user you could personalize it to their #1 needs.
Most simple & easy to use products often win.How Loom Uses Loom To Win The Best Candidates
Everyone on the hiring panel records a loom when we send out offers.
I was on the receiving end & felt absolutely floored.
It’s one of those soft things that give candidates a real reason to join.It Is All Or Nothing With Enterprise
At some point the big customers will need it all.
You can figure out what to build in iterations but it would take years.
You need to make a real commitment & go all in.Biggest Signs of a PM Mishire
The ability to deliver real impact.
It’s not on metrics but whether your team is in a healthier spot.
Bad hires spend the first 3 months still onboarding.
Let us know what your big takeaways from this week’s shows were in the comments below!
Thank you for reading, and don’t miss the great guests we have next week:
Danny Rimer, Partner of Index Ventures
Michael Eisenberg, General Partner of Aleph
Thank you for reading 20VC.
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